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RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL” “S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003339
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PK, PREL, PTER
SUBJECT: ZARDARI EXPRESSES DELIGHT WITH CHINA VISIT, LOOKS
TO FRIENDS FOR HELP ON CHALLENGES
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (S/NF) Summary: In a
wide-ranging discussion with visiting SCA Assistant Secretary Boucher,
President Zardari expressed complete satisfaction with his just
concluded visit to China, reviewed planning for the Friends of Pakistan,
and reiterated his determination to press the fight against extremism
and the militancy in the tribal areas. He linked his ability to sustain
the counter-insurgency fight to progress on addressing Pakistan,s
economic woes, however, and chastised the IMF for only wanting to
&take away8 in its negotiations. Zardari alerted Boucher to Iran’s
offer of concessional oil for Pakistan, an offer he did not believe
he could refuse. Boucher reminded him of the Deputy Secretary’s recent
caution not to allow Iran to gain a toehold in Pakistan. End Summary.
2. (SBU) Visiting Assistant
Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher called on
President Zardari at the Aiwan-e-Sadr, October 18. He was accompanied
by the Ambassador, DCM (notetaker), and SCA Senior Advisor
Hayden. Minister of Information Sherry Rehman joined Zardari.
China Visit
————-
3. (S/NF) Zardari told Boucher his visit to China was
&great.8 He confirmed that
the Chinese had committed to building two additional nuclear power
plants for Pakistan ) Chashma 3 and 4. He noted, however, that
construction would not start until the completion of the Chashma 2
reactor, which he anticipated would require an additional five
years. Commenting that the Chinese were providing only old technology,
Zardari said that Pakistan had no choice but to accept &junk.8
Boucher told Zardari we would examine the implications of the new
nuclear deal vis–vis the International Atomic Energy Agency and let the
Pakistanis know if we anticipated any problems with the deal.
4. (S/NF) Zardari also told
Boucher that the Chinese had committed to providing assistance to
Pakistan,s security forces. Arguing that China was Pakistan,s only
affordable option for needed security items, Zardari said the
government plans to acquire armored vehicles, body armor, and small
arms from China. The Chinese also plan to provide large scanners to
Pakistan to help check the contents of trucks. Boucher and the
Ambassador reminded Zardari that the U.S. is working with the Frontier
Corps on a comprehensive train and equip program. (Comment: Embassy is
preparing a letter to Zardari reviewing the details of the U.S.
government’s extensive support to the Frontier Corps. End Comment)
5. (C) Although silent on the
question of possible Chinese balance of payments support to Pakistan,
Zardari lauded Chinese &out-of-box8 thinking about business
investment in Pakistan. As an example, he described a project to build
a dam that would irrigate land that Zardari would then grant to women,
who would grow flowers on the land for export to the Emirates. The
Chinese will manage the marketing for the
project.
Friends of Pakistan
———————–
6. (C) Zardari confirmed that
he wants to formally change the name of the group to Friends of
Democratic Pakistan. In response to Boucher’s question about the Saudi
position, he provided Boucher with a convoluted description of
his discussions with Prince Turki bin Abdullah, who requested Zardari,s
participation in the Interfaith Dialogue that the King is organizing in
New York. In exchange, Zardari expects that the Saudis will be full
participants in the Friends group (see septel).
7. (C) As for other possible
additions to the Friends group, Boucher suggested that Spain and the
Scandinavians might be ISLAMABAD 00003339 002 OF 003 good additions.
Zardari assented, and asked Boucher if the U.S. would support Libya’s
inclusion, to which Boucher agreed. Zardari suggested to Boucher that
he would like China added to the steering group. Boucher was open to
the idea but noted that the steering committee needed to remain small.
8. (C) Boucher reminded Zardari
that the Friends group is not a &checkbook8 organization. He noted
that we need to sit with the steering group and consider issues
like membership and the role of the UN. We are hoping that the UN will
help drive the process by providing a secretariat function. After the
next meeting in Abu Dhabi, the U.S. vision would be to launch a series
of experts meeting that would consider Pakistani policies and
initiatives in a sector-by-sector review.
9. (S/NF) In an aside, Zardari
mentioned that Iran has offered to provide Pakistan with concessional
oil. How could he go to the National Assembly and tell them Iran had
offered the assistance and Pakistan had turned it down, he
asked rhetorically. Boucher reminded him of Ambassador Haqqani,s recent
conversation on this issue with Deputy Secretary Negroponte in which
the Deputy cautioned against providing Iran with a toehold in Pakistan.
Counter-Insurgency
———————–
10. (S) Zardari stressed
repeatedly his determination to carry through with the fight against
extremism and militancy. &I don’t believe in talking to the
Taliban,8 he said. &We won’t do it on our side of the border.8 He
noted that he has built a good relationship with the military
and praised the leadership of Chief of Army Staff Kayani, ISI Director
General Pasha, and Frontier Corps General Tariq Khan. To challenge the
fundamentalists, however, Zardari needs to gain the confidence of the
Army, the National Assembly, and the people. To do that, he believes he
must address the economic situation and demonstrate that he can deliver
on his economic promises. Zardari chastised the IMF for just wanting
to &take away8 from Pakistan in the negotiations over a bailout
package.
11. (C) In response to
Boucher,s question about the National Assembly debate on Pakistan,s
counter-insurgency strategy, Zardari expressed confidence that he would
succeed in winning from the Assembly a consensus resolution on
the government,s policy. (N.B.: A day earlier, both National Security
Advisor Durrani and Information Minister Rehman expressed skepticism
that an acceptable consensus resolution was achievable.) Nawaz Sharif,s
Pakistan Muslim League is offering no help on Pakistan,s
counter-terrorism policy, Zardari opined. Rehman added that Nawaz and
Chaudhry Nisar have a &good cop/bad cop8 routine. Nawaz says good
things about his party’s commitment to cooperation, but Nisar does the
opposite in the Assembly.
12. (C) Describing his
legislative strategy going forward, Zardari said that proposed revisions
to the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) are nearly ready to bring to
the Assembly. He anticipates that the extension of the Political
Parties Act to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(permitting political parties to organize and campaign in the
tribal areas under the same regulations as apply to the rest of
the country) would be introduced within three months. Zardari also
described a de-radicalization program he plans on introducing in the
Assembly. Zardari will propose a criminal regime for &small fries8
that would sentence them to seven years in a &special prison8 to be
constructed for handling reforming militants. While in the prison, the
militants would receive job training and would receive
lenient treatment, including conjugal rights. &I won’t
stop pressing,8 Zardari declared, &either he (the militant) dies or
he takes the option.8 Anyone caught a second time after going through
the reform program will be sent to prison for ISLAMABAD 00003339 003 OF
003 life, Zardari declared.
13. (S) Turning to the fighting
in Bajaur, Zardari asserted that the government needs a mechanism to
get compensation into the hands of the victims of the fighting,
suggesting that he thought one billion U.S. dollars might be
sufficient. Responding that we anticipate the financial
requirement would be less than that, Boucher and the Ambassador
assured Zardari we are looking for ways that we can help. Zardari asked
if the Friends of Democratic Pakistan might be of help, but Boucher
reiterated that such assistance would likely fall outside the mandate of
the group. Zardari then suggested that the Saudis could provide the
necessary funds, noting that &the problem leads back to them.8
Rehman interjected that the National Assembly members were asking how
the militants were getting their funds and raised the flow of funds from
the Gulf to extremists in Pakistan. (DCM observed that efforts to stop
funding terrorist groups were not helped by Pakistan,s obstruction of
work in the UN 1267 Committee, mentioning specifically the hold on
Katrina. Zardari expressed surprise that Pakistan was playing such a
role, and Rehman made note of the issue.)
14. (S) As for the
Pakistan-Afghanistan mini-jirga scheduled for Islamabad in a week’s
time, Zardari expressed the hope that it will re-occupy political space
in the tribal areas. He expressed the hope that the jirga could
re-consolidate the government,s position among the majority of the
tribes, noting that the government,s greatest challenge in rooting out
the extremists is when they are able to shelter among the population in
the area. As for leadership of the Pakistani delegation to the jirga,
Sherry Rehman noted that Asfandyar Wali Khan, who had been proposed as
the senior Pakistani, will not be back in Pakistan in time for the
meeting. She suggested that Asfandyar is in &bad shape8 following
the terrorist attack on his home near Charsadda. Zardari indicated
separately that he is helping Asfandyar relocate his family to Dubai and
would provide him with an armored vehicle when he returns to Pakistan.
Friends: the U.S. and the UK
———————————–
15. (C) Zardari mused about the
need to reach out to the new U.S. Administration after the elections
and suggested that he would like to organize a &road show8 to visit
the U.S. and explain Pakistan,s situation. Boucher suggested that
such an effort could emphasize U.S.-Pakistani cooperation on the border
coordination centers, the Joint Military Operations Coordination Center,
and the Frontier Corps train and equip program.
16. (S/NF) As for the UK,
Zardari expressed some concern that their support was getting wobbly.
He believes that their views reflect their conviction that Zardari would
fail and would be replaced by Nawaz Sharif. Boucher thought that the
concerns are more a reflection of attitude than policy. If Zardari
achieves results, he asserted, then the British will come around.
17. (S/NF) Zardari was clearly
buoyed by his visit to China and in good spirits as he looks ahead to
the serious challenges that confront him and the country. He ran
through numerous ideas for new initiatives to deal with the political,
economic, and security problems, nearly all of which come with high
price tags. In that regard, Zardari continues to express considerable
optimism that, ultimately, his friends will ride to his rescue despite
little evidence to support that view.
PATTERSON
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