Afghanistan Versus Tajikistan will there be a Clash as both Armies reach Border?

 

The Mistake of underestimating Tajikistan.

Afghanistan and Tajikistan share a 1300 Km border. The recent take-over of Taliban of Afghanistan has irked  Tajikistan. Taliban on the other hand have all serious issues with its neighbor Tajikistan. Afghanistan has a population of around 25% who by ethnicity are Tajik and most of them are die-hard supporters of Northern Alliance. Ahmad shah Masood who was killed in a suicide attack prior to 9/11 is there hero and now his son Ahmad Masood leads the tribe.

Tajikistan is a key player in the Taliban and there relations with the world. It will be a serious blinder to ignore them. Tajikistan is insisting for a share of Tajik Uzbek and other minorities in the Taliban government. Amar Ullah Saleh and Ahmad Masood all flee to Tajikistan.

Forming of Exile Afghan Government in Tajikistan.

There are hot rumors' that Amar Ullah Saleh along with Ahmad Masood are planning to announce a exile government in Tajikistan which may lead to further escalate tensions between the Taliban and Tajikistan.

The tensions are mounting with Taliban and Tajikistan both bringing there armies to the border .Tajikistan is a member of CSTO(Collective Security Treaty Organization) which has six members including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan.

Tajikistan President Imam Ali Rahmon in a statement has already rejected the proposal to accept the Taliban regime while Russia and China have emerged as the real beneficiaries of the conflict while Iran India are supporting the Northern Alliance.

Dushanbe is becoming the headquarter of Northern Alliance although Tajikistan has still not openly allowed there members to have an official status.

Indian Airbase Farkhor in Tajikistan.

Tajikistan has allowed Indian Airforce to have a base where they have stationed a squadron of MiG 29 Aircrafts .Pakistan has major concerns about this Air-base as they feel this can be used during a war with India. Pakistan ex-president Pervaiz Musharraf showed his concern to Tajikistan but still India is maintaining there presence.

Armies on the Border.

Tajikistan and Afghanistan have deployed there Armies on the borders amid the escalating tension which may lead to a war. Russia is a strong supporter of Tajikistan and this might lead to Russia intervention again and which might provoke the Americans. In current scenario Americans are also supporting the Tajikistan Government.

French President Emmanuel Macron has invited Tajikistan President Imam Ali Rahmon to visit France in the Past the European have a soft corner for the Northern Alliance.

Where will Pakistan stand in case of a war which may lead to an influx of new refugees and other problems as India  is not happy with Afghanistan and there is huge chance that a war will come-out sooner or later between the 2 Nuclear rivals.