Sunday, June 24, 2018

Saudi Arabia wants military rule in Pakistan

3. (S) Al-Jubeir expressed considerable "disappointment" in Sharif's broken pledges to the SAG. He stated very clearly that the SAG has worked directly with Musharraf to have Sharif arrested on his return to Pakistan and immediately deported to the Kingdom. "We told Musharraf that we would receive him back and then keep him here as an 'honored guest'," al-Jubeir said. He added that Prince Muqrin had been the SAG's point man in restraining Sharif. Prince Muqrin was allowed to reveal the terms of Sharif's asylum agreement, he noted. Al-Jubeir made it very clear that the SAG would seek to control Sharif's movements in he future, even suggesting that he would be kept in a state only a little less severe than house arrest. 4. (S) Al-Jubeir added that he sees neither Sharif nor former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto as a viable replacement for Musharraf. "With all his flaws," he said of Musharraf, "he is the only person that you or we have to work with now." He claimed that Sharif would be unable to control the Pushtun-dominated Islamic insurgency in the tribal region near Afghanistan, while Bhutto would prove to be too divisive a figure to rule the country, which he characterized as "very tribal, much like our own country." 5. (S) Al-Jubeir added that for the SAG, stability in Pakistan is an essential strategic matter. Since Pakistan possesses both nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, from the Saudi point of view, the policy choice to be made there boils down to a drastic choice: "We can either support Musharraf and stability, or we can allow bin Laden to get the bomb, "he told the Charge'. 6. (S) Comment: As a senior royal advisor who has worked for King Abdullah for eight years now, al-Jubeir's views generally track very closely with those of the King. It seems likely that King Abdullah, Prince Muqrin, and Prince Saud al-Faisal will offer Musharraf pledges of strong support in their meetings today. We note that the Saudis have an economic hold on Nawaz Sharif, sine he was reportedly the first non-Saudi to receive a special economic development loan from the SAG, with which to develop a business while here in exile. We will report further information on these meetings as it develops. 

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